Sunday, September 7, 2008

Time To Bounce

The new USA Today/Gallup Poll is out, and well, its quite good.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

That by itself is good news, but the really important poll data is and always has been likely voters.

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote.

Now obviously, no one, not even the most partisan McCain backer expects a ten percentage point victory. Convention bounces always dissipate somewhat over the following several months. But a lead this big is encouraging, especially heading into the debates, which I think we can all agree are Obama's biggest weakness.